Stephen Carpenter – Market Timing Tutorial

DISCLAIMER : The data on  the KeyTurningDates.com month-to-month letters, the interim studies, or in another correspondence, both written or oral, is offered solely for academic functions, and by no means needs to be construed as buying and selling or funding recommendation. The aforesaid data carries no guarantee, both specific or implied. Past efficiency doesn’t assure future outcomes. Futures and choice buying and selling are extraordinarily dangerous, and can lead to massive monetary loss.

KeyTurningDates.com is a month-to-month e-mail letter with interim e-mail updates that focuses on timing the U. S. inventory market. It is meant to behave as a buying and selling instrument, complementing different analytical instruments at a dealer’s disposal. The letters and interim updates are meant to be academic in nature, alerting the dealer to the quiet undertow of the market, permitting the dealer the chance to make use of this to his or her benefit by putting worthwhile trades.

KeyTurningDates.com is all about serving to the dealer earn a living. As the legendary dealer Jesse Livermore as soon as mentioned, “The big money is made by sitting, not thinking. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.” Livermore was proper: most individuals commerce too ceaselessly. They need to present how proper they are often. It is rather more worthwhile to attend for simply the proper time, to commerce much less ceaselessly and, subsequently, extra profitably.

My identify is Steve Carpenter. I dwell and commerce in a suburb of Washington, D. C. I’ve traded, studied and been fascinated by the markets for greater than twenty years. During that point, I’ve subscribed to and browse many, many inventory market letters; I’ve learn many, many books and articles in regards to the markets; I’ve attended seminars all around the nation. I’ve spent many 1000’s of {dollars} on my schooling, together with the numerous 1000’s I misplaced the primary few years I traded. In reality, I misplaced sufficient of my cash that I needed to cease buying and selling lengthy sufficient to avoid wasting up sufficient cash to start out over once more. Needless to say, I feel I’ve paid my dues to the market.

It was after the second time I obtained worn out that I began finding out the legendary dealer W. D. Gann. I turned fascinated with charts and with technical evaluation. I learn all about cycles, and I turned fascinated with geometric figures–squares, circles, triangles and rectangles. If Gann thought time was a very powerful consider predicting the market, then I used to be going to learn to use time to my benefit. I reasoned that point is nearly mystical, in a method: You can’t contact it or see it, however you undoubtedly can see its results.

With respect to the markets, time actually is the one fixed. Even when a inventory or commodity shouldn’t be buying and selling at any level throughout the day, the minutes maintain proper on ticking away. I began to think about time as a set dimension that may very well be dissected. It dawned on me that point is definitely the market’s undertow: it’s quiet and unseen, however because it progresses, it’s exerting increasingly more stress on a market wave or swing or cycle, till that interval ends and a brand new one begins. Over time, I developed a strategy for harnessing that market undertow and used it to “time” my trades.  Once I used to be capable of “time” my trades, I turned a profitable dealer.

I used the S & P 100 money index (the OEX) as the premise for my evaluation as a result of I preferred buying and selling OEX choices and I knew that money leads and futures observe. Whether one trades the S&P 100 or the S&P 500 actually is irrelevant, nevertheless, in terms of the KeyTurningDates.  If one can “time” the OEX, then one can use the identical KeyTurningDates to “time” the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones Industrials. When these indexes peak, they usually achieve this on the identical day or inside a day of one another; the identical factor occurs after they backside. In my methodology for projecting the KeyTurningDates, I take advantage of market cycles I’ve remoted over time and mission these cycles into the longer term.  Once a cycle is recognized, its future turning dates will be forecast with unbelievable accuracy as a result of these cycles repeat themselves again and again.