Risk Simulator 9.2.0 (2013)

RISK SIMULATOR

Risk Simulator software program for working Monte Carlo Simulation, Forecasting, and Optimization.

 

 

Monte Carlo Simulation

45 Probability Distributions with easy-to-use interface, working Super Speed Simulation (1000’s of trials in just a few seconds) with Comprehensive Statistics and Reporting, Distributional Correlations with Copulas, Latin Hypercube and Monte Carlo Simulation, Truncation, Percentile Alternate Parameters and Percentile Fit, Linking capabilities, Multidimensional Simulations, Simulation Profiling, 6 random quantity turbines, and Risk Simulator features in Excel

 

Analytical Tools

Bootstrapping, Check Model, Cluster Segmentation, Comprehensive Reports, Data Extraction and Statistics Report, Data Import, Deseasonalization and Detrending, Detailed Data Diagnostics, Distributional Fitting (Single, Multiple, Percentile Fit), Distributional Probabilities (PDF, CDF, ICDF), Hypothesis Testing, Overlay Charts, Principal Component Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, Scenario Analysis, Statistical Analytics, Structural Breaks, Tornado and Spider Charts

 

Forecasting

Box-Jenkins ARIMA, Auto ARIMA, Basic Econometrics, Auto Econometrics, Combinatorial Fuzzy Logic, Cubic Spline, Custom Distributions, GARCH, J Curve, S Curve, Markov Chain, Maximum Likelihood, Multiple Regression, Neural Network, Nonlinear Extrapolation, Stochastic Processes, Time-Series Decomposition, Trendlines

 

Optimization

Static, Dynamic and Stochastic Optimization with Continuous, Discrete and Integer Decision Variables, Efficient Frontier, Genetic Algorithm, Linear and Nonlinear Optimization, Single Variable Goal Seek

 

SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS

Windows XP, Vista, or WIN7 (32 and 64 bit)

Excel XP, 2003, 2007, or 2010 (32 and 64 bit)

Microsoft .NET 2.0, 3.0, 3.5 or later

350MB Hard Drive area

Administrative Rights to put in software program

 

MAC OS customers can run the software program so long as they’ve Bootcamp, Virtual Machine, or Parallels

 

 

WHAT’S NEW IN RISK SIMULATOR VERSION 2012

The following lists the brand new enhancements and instruments accessible within the newest model of Risk Simulator, in addition to enhancements from earlier variations. Upgrades from variations 3.X, 4.X, 5.X, 6.X, or 2010.X require a small improve payment of solely $300 (click on on Purchase for extra data).

 

General Enhancements in Risk Simulator Version 2012:

 

New Advanced Methods and Models:

– GARCH Models: GARCH, GARCH-M, TGARCH-M, TGARCH, EGARCH, EGARCH-T, GJR GARCH, GJR TGARCH

– MLE-LIMDEP (Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Limited Dependent Variables): Logit, Probit, Tobit

– Data Deseasonalization

– Data Detrending and Cyclicality Analysis

– Principal Component Analysis

– Structural Break Analysis

– Checking mannequin integrity

– Trendline Forecasts (linear, nonlinear polynomial, energy, logarithmic, exponential, transferring common)

– Stepwise Multiple Regression (ahead, backward, correlation, forward-backward)

– T-Copulas and Quasi-Normal Copula, Normal Copula for correlated simulations

– 6 Random Number Generators:

 

ROV Advanced Subtractive Generator

Subtractive Random Shuffle Generator

Long Period Shuffle Generator

Portable Random Shuffle Generator

Quick IEEE Hex Generator

Basic Minimal Portable Generator)

 

– Latin Hypercube Sampling (enhances current Monte Carlo Simulation)

– Genetic Algorithm in optimization

– Single Variable Goal Seek

– Combinatorial Fuzzy Logic Forecasts

– Neural Network Forecasts (linear, nonlinear logistic, hyperbolic tangent, and cosine)

 

• ROV Decision Tree: ROV Decision Tree is used to create and worth determination tree fashions. Additional superior methodologies and analytics are additionally included: Decision Tree Models, Monte Carlo Risk Simulation, Sensitivity Analysis, Scenario Analysis, Bayesian (Joint and Posterior Probability Updating), Expected Value of Information, MINIMAX, MAXIMIN, Risk Profiles

 

• Percentile Distributional Fitting: makes use of percentiles and optimization to seek out the best-fitting distribution.

 

• Probability Distributions’ Charts and Tables: runs 45 likelihood distributions, their 4 moments, CDF, ICDF, PDF, charts, and overlay a number of distributional charts, and generates likelihood distribution tables.

 

• ROV BizStats: Version 2012 features a new module known as ROV BizStats, which is a standalone device that can be utilized to run primary to superior statistical analyses at very excessive speeds. This new module consists of the next 130+ strategies:

 

Absolute Values, ANOVA: Randomized Blocks Multiple Treatments, ANOVA: Single Factor Multiple Treatments, ANOVA: Two Way Analysis, ARIMA, Auto ARIMA, Autocorrelation and Partial Autocorrelation, Autoeconometrics (Detailed), Autoeconometrics (Quick), Average, Combinatorial Fuzzy Logic Forecasting, Control Chart: C, Control Chart: NP, Control Chart: P, Control Chart: R, Control Chart: U, Control Chart: X, Control Chart: XMR, Correlation, Correlation (Linear, Nonlinear), Count, Covariance, Cubic Spline, Custom Econometric Model, Data Descriptive Statistics, Deseasonalize, Difference, Distributional Fitting, Exponential J Curve, GARCH, Heteroskedasticity, Lag, Lead, Limited Dependent Variables (Logit), Limited Dependent Variables (Probit), Limited Dependent Variables (Tobit), Linear Interpolation, Linear Regression, LN, Log, Logistic S Curve, Markov Chain, Max, Median, Min, Mode, Neural Network, Nonlinear Regression, Nonparametric: Chi-Square Goodness of Fit, Nonparametric: Chi-Square Independence, Nonparametric: Chi-Square Population Variance, Nonparametric: Friedman’s Test, Nonparametric: Kruskal-Wallis Test, Nonparametric: Lilliefors Test, Nonparametric: Runs Test, Nonparametric: Wilcoxon Signed-Rank (One Var), Nonparametric: Wilcoxon Signed-Rank (Two Var), Parametric: One Variable (T) Mean, Parametric: One Variable (Z) Mean, Parametric: One Variable (Z) Proportion, Parametric: Two Variable (F) Variances, Parametric: Two Variable (T) Dependent Means, Parametric: Two Variable (T) Independent Equal Variance, Parametric: Two Variable (T) Independent Unequal Variance, Parametric: Two Variable (Z) Independent Means, Parametric: Two Variable (Z) Independent Proportions, Power, Principal Component Analysis, Rank Ascending, Rank Descending, Relative LN Returns, Relative Returns, Seasonality, Segmentation Clustering, Semi-Standard Deviation (Lower), Semi-Standard Deviation (Upper), Standard 2D Area, Standard 2D Bar, Standard 2D Line, Standard 2D Point, Standard 2D Scatter, Standard 3D Area, Standard 3D Bar, Standard 3D Line, Standard 3D Point, Standard 3D Scatter, Standard Deviation (Population), Standard Deviation (Sample), Stepwise Regression (Backward), Stepwise Regression (Correlation), Stepwise Regression (Forward), Stepwise Regression (Forward-Backward), Stochastic Processes (Exponential Brownian Motion), Stochastic Processes (Geometric Brownian Motion), Stochastic Processes (Jump Diffusion), Stochastic Processes (Mean Reversion with Jump Diffusion), Stochastic Processes (Mean Reversion), Structural Break, Sum, Time-Series Analysis (Auto), Time-Series Analysis (Double Exponential Smoothing), Time-Series Analysis (Double Moving Average), Time-Series Analysis (Holt-Winter’s Additive), Time-Series Analysis (Holt-Winter’s Multiplicative), Time-Series Analysis (Seasonal Additive), Time-Series Analysis (Seasonal Multiplicative), Time-Series Analysis (Single Exponential Smoothing), Time-Series Analysis (Single Moving Average), Trend Line (Difference Detrended), Trend Line (Exponential Detrended), Trend Line (Exponential), Trend Line (Linear Detrended), Trend Line (Linear), Trend Line (Logarithmic Detrended), Trend Line (Logarithmic), Trend Line (Moving Average Detrended), Trend Line (Moving Average), Trend Line (Polynomial Detrended), Trend Line (Polynomial), Trend Line (Power Detrended), Trend Line (Power), Trend Line (Rate Detrended), Trend Line (Static Mean Detrended), Trend Line (Static Median Detrended), Variance (Population), Variance (Sample), Volatility: EGARCH, Volatility: EGARCH-T, Volatility: GARCH, Volatility: GARCH-M, Volatility: GJR GARCH, Volatility: GJR TGARCH, Volatility: Log Returns Approach, Volatility: TGARCH, Volatility: TGARCH-M, Yield Curve (Bliss), and Yield Curve (Nelson-Siegel).

 

• 11 Foreign Languages: Risk Simulator 2012 now helps 11 languages: English, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Simplified Chinese, Traditional Chinese, Spanish and Russian, full with the localized languages’ consumer interface, consumer manuals, stories, examples, workouts, instruments, charts, and extra!

 

• Forecast Chart Global View: You can now toggle between international view and common view on the forecast charts the place all the controls from the common tabbed view at the moment are accessible in a single complete international view.

 

• Multiple Cell Copy/Paste: You can now copy and paste a number of cells with noncontiguous assumptions and forecasts.

 

• Distributional Analysis Tool: The extremely highly effective Distributional Analysis device now has a facelift the place you possibly can run PDF, CDF, ICDF and combos of those on a knowledge grid, copy the computed knowledge, and consider completely different chart sorts.

 

• Edit Correlation Tool: The Edit Correlation between enter assumptions device now helps an interactive visible correlation chart.

 

• Excel 2010 and WIN7: This new model helps Windows 7 – 32 and 64 bit variations, and Excel 2010 – 32 bit and 64 bit variations (you will have to obtain and set up the proper model relying on the Excel 2010 bit ranges).

 

• Hands-on Exercises: This model comes with 140 pages of step-by-step hands-on workouts for working every of the strategies and instruments in Risk Simulator and 103 pages of likelihood distribution particulars (describing the traits and nature of the 45 distributions accessible in Risk Simulator), complementing the 206-page detailed consumer guide (translated into 11 languages).

 

• Troubleshooter: The Troubleshooter device is now built-in within the Start menu for Risk Simulator, the place you should use this device to acquire the standing of Risk Simulator set up (e.g., registry settings, COM settings, set up path), restore Risk Simulator whether it is disabled, repair Excel safety settings, acquire Hardware ID, and extra.

 

• Minor Bug Fixes and Enhancements: This new model consists of faster report era, scatter plot assist within the Overlay Charts device, simplified drop-list for seasonality choice within the Time Series Forecasting device, extra elegant wanting Spider Charts, auto set up of licenses (in the event you improve from the identical main model similar to from 2012(A) to 2012(B), the place the earlier license will now be mechanically transferred to the brand new model; this doesn’t apply if you’re upgrading from a unique main model similar to from model 5.X to 2010.X), and lots of different small enhancements and fixes.

 

General Enhancements in Risk Simulator Version 5.Four and past:

 

• Super Speed Simulation: This new functionality lets you run simulations at tremendous speeds (50X to 500X quicker relying on the mannequin and your processor velocity!) by first analyzing your Excel mannequin after which compiling the mannequin into pure mathematical code and working the simulations at very excessive speeds. Certain fashions that can’t be compiled will likely be run at common velocity (e.g., fashions with VBA features and macros, hyperlinks to exterior knowledge or information, unsupported or flawed features, and errors within the mannequin).

 

• Turbo Speed Analytics: We added a brand new high-speed engine in our forecast strategies and analytical instruments. Same analyses outcomes as in earlier variations however they now run 10X to 30X quicker relying on the evaluation and your processor velocity!

 

• Multiple Excel Versions. Users with each Excel 2007 and Excel 2003/XP loaded can now simply and seamlessly run Risk Simulator on any Excel variations in a single laptop. There is now an Excel model switching device that lets you decide which model of Excel to start out Risk Simulator with.

 

• Commented Cells. You can flip cell feedback on or off in Risk Simulator’s Options menu, to resolve in the event you want to present cell feedback on all enter assumptions, output forecasts and determination variables.

 

• Right-Click Full Menus. You can now entry all of Risk Simulator’s instruments and menus utilizing a mouse proper click on.

 

• Multiple Models Econometrics. You can now enter in a single equation or a number of equations to run primary econometrics modeling and mechanically create tens to tons of of iterations of the identical mannequin by predefined variables in addition to shift the info over time.

 

• Super Speed Simulation in Dynamic and Stochastic Optimization. Simply click on on the Advanced button while you run Optimization and choose tremendous velocity simulation.

 

• Revised Icons in Excel 2010: Users with Excel 2010/2007 will see a very reworked icon toolbar that’s extra intuitive and consumer pleasant. There will likely be 4 units of icons that match most display screen resolutions (1280 x 760 and above).

 

• Enhanced Forecast Charts: The forecast charts now have extra graphical enhancements.

 

• Truncated Statistics. If you carry out some knowledge filtering within the forecast chart (Data Filter part within the Options tab), the Statistics tab will present the up to date statistics primarily based on the truncated knowledge set. If you don’t truncate the forecast knowledge, the complete dataset’s statistics will likely be proven as traditional.

 

• Chart Controls (3D/Tilt/Move, Colors, Fitting, PDF/CDF). This is a brand new tab inside the forecast chart whereby you possibly can modify the prevailing forecast charts together with performing distributional becoming on the forecast knowledge set, creating overlay PDF/CDF/ICDF charts, overlaying scatter charts, and altering chart choices (chart sorts, 3D rotation, colours, zoom, tilt, variety of decimals, minimal and most values to chart on the axes, title title, and lots of different choices, together with the power to avoid wasting the revised settings and print the chart in numerous codecs).

 

• Auto Econometrics: This new forecasting device is used to run tons of and even 1000’s of mannequin combos and permutations utilizing good heuristics to find out the best-fitting mannequin in your knowledge, by testing linear, nonlinear, lagged, lead, interacting, nested, and different fashions. This device is the counterpart to the ROV Risk Modeler software program’s detailed autoeconometrics, which is able to working tons of of 1000’s to a couple million fashions on giant datasets.

 

• Basic Econometrics: The current forecasting device is now enhanced with new capabilities together with the power to create new variables and features similar to TIME (a linear time-series variable), DIFF (first differencing the time-series knowledge set), RESIDUAL (knowledge from the error time period of a forecast equation you specify), RATE (first order ratio of time-series knowledge), and FORECAST (knowledge from the error time period of a forecast equation you specify).

 

• Trendline Analysis: This new device runs the commonest trendlines together with linear, nonlinear, exponential, energy, transferring common, and polynomial fashions. It returns a sequence of charts in addition to the goodness-of-fit statistics for every mannequin.

 

• Overlay Charts: This new charting device is used to match a number of assumptions and/or forecast variables, by plotting them in a time-series or cross-sectional overlay method. This lets you rapidly view the similarities and variations within the assumptions and forecasts in straightforward to learn charts.

 

• Segmentation Clustering: This device is able to segregating and clustering or grouping a big set of knowledge into completely different pure statistical teams by making use of some good algorithms and heuristics.

 

• Create Forecast Statistics Table: This new device can create stories of simply the important thing forecast statistics (e.g., imply, median mode, normal deviation, variance, coefficient of variation, skew, kurtosis) in addition to confidence ranges and possibilities of the output forecast variables you choose. The result’s a comparability desk itemizing the chosen statistics throughout a number of forecasts.

 

• Flexible Licensing: There are a number of new enhancements to our licensing:

 

• Vista customers with the consumer entry management turned on or restricted customers with out administrative logins will nonetheless have the ability to benefit from the full functionalities of Risk Simulator by having the ability to set up the software program licenses with out doing any extra work. To set up a brand new license file you obtained, merely begin Excel, click on on Risk Simulator, License, Install License and browse to the license file you might be offered to activate the software program completely or for an extended trial interval).

 

• Risk Simulator now has the aptitude of turning on or off sure functionalities to can help you customise your threat evaluation expertise. For occasion, if you’re solely within the forecasting instruments in Risk Simulator, you might be able to acquire a particular license that prompts solely the forecasting instruments and leaves the opposite modules deactivated, thereby saving some prices on the software program. The 4 modules that may be turned on or off are Simulation, Forecasting, Optimization and Analytical Tools. In addition, particular instruments in every module will also be turned on or off. This customization is barely accessible for website licenses of greater than 10 computer systems.

 

• Advanced Forecasting Models: Together with the brand new forecasting instruments and strategies in model 2012, Risk Simulator now has the next forecasting methodologies:

 

ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)

Auto ARIMA

Auto Econometrics

Basic Econometrics

Combinatorial Fuzzy Logic

Cubic Spline

GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity)

J-Curves

Markov Chains

Maximum Likelihood

Neural Network

Nonlinear Extrapolation

Regression

S-Curves

Stochastic Processes

Time-Series Analysis

Trendlines

 

General Enhancements in Risk Simulator Version Four and past:

 

• Excel RS Functions: You can now entry Risk Simulator features inside Excel by clicking on Insert Function wherever in your spreadsheet and scrolling to the features beginning with RS. Here, you possibly can set assumptions in addition to acquire the forecast statistics of a forecast variable. For occasion, you possibly can run the RSAssumptionNormal perform to set a standard distribution assumption to a cell, or RSForecastStatistic to acquire the statistics of a forecast cell. In the set assumption forecast, you possibly can set the placeholder or momentary worth that’s seen earlier than and after a simulation is run (Value), the title of the belief (Variable Name), and the parameters of the distribution (e.g., Mean, Standard Deviation), in addition to different objects similar to percentile values, correlations, in addition to min and max boundaries. For the outcomes, it’s also possible to use RSForecastStatistic(A1, “Percentile99.9”) to acquire the 99.90 percentile worth of cell A1, the place this cell has a forecast parameter set. The features that can be utilized embody: “PercentileXXX”, “CertaintyXXX”, “Mean”, “Median”, StandardDeviation”, “Variance”, “Skewness”, and “Kurtosis”.

 

• Right-Click in Excel: You can now use the mouse right-click to entry fast Risk Simulator objects in Excel, similar to set assumptions, set forecasts, and run simulation.

 

• Percentiles and Conditional Means: In stochastic optimization, extra statistics at the moment are accessible, together with Percentiles in addition to Conditional Means, similar to acquiring the imply so long as it’s > A or < A, that are important in computing conditional worth in danger measures.

 

• Coefficient of Variation (CV): The imply absolute deviation worth is now modified to CV within the forecast chart’s statistics, the place CV is the usual deviation divided by the imply, generally used as a proxy for volatility, and helpful as a relative measure of threat, in evaluating completely different sized initiatives, in addition to getting used as a risk-to-return ratio.

 

• Scenario Analysis: This new device is used to compute numerous eventualities in your mannequin, by altering one or two enter variables at a time, for a spread of inputs, to find out the results on the output.

 

• Powerful Tornado: Additional checklists and choices at the moment are accessible, as are a extra steady and highly effective Tornado evaluation (whereby now you can run Tornado throughout a number of worksheets), international settings (change one setting similar to testing 10% upside and draw back, and you’ll management if particular person precedents are modified or all the set of precedents are modified), and highlighting or ignoring doable integer values (generally integer values are used as flags in a mannequin and this feature helps in figuring out potential precedents chances are you’ll want to ignore in working the Tornado). Worksheet names at the moment are included within the sensitivity tables for simple identification, and different enhancements are included.

 

• Efficient Frontier: This optimization device is able to working a number of units of optimizations with altering constraints. You can entry this device by the Set Constraints dialog field in optimization. This approach could be run in concurrence with static, dynamic and stochastic optimization.

 

• Re-enable Risk Simulator: This device is now accessible on the Start | Programs | Real Options Valuation | Risk Simulator menu. It lets you re-enable the software program if Windows or Excel quickly disables the software program (this may happen if there’s a energy outage if you find yourself working a simulation, in the event you get a virus or Trojan horse in your laptop, in the event you by accident delete some important information, and so forth).

 

• Multiphasic Optimization: The module now’s outfitted with a Multiphasic Optimization and a check for Local versus Global Optimum within the “Advanced” choices button (accessible while you run an optimization). These two new options, when used along with the prevailing superior options, permit the consumer to have higher management over how the optimization is run, and will increase the accuracy and dependency of the outcomes.

 

• Statistical Analysis Tool: Select the info you want to analyze, together with the headers, and begin this device (situated at Risk Simulator | Tools | Statistical Analysis), and the next analyses will likely be accessible:

 

Descriptive statistics, together with all Four moments of the distribution in addition to different confidence measures.

Distributional becoming, to check if the info set could be fitted to any distributions.

Hypothesis check to confirm if the info are statistically considerably comparable or completely different than a particular worth.

Nonlinear extrapolation to check if the info, a time-series, is nonlinear in nature.

Normality check to see if the info set is statistically near a standard distribution. This is a crucial statistical character as a result of hypotheses exams in addition to different modeling strategies require the normality assumption.

Stochastic parameter estimations, to seek out the enter parameters for a random stroll, mean-reverting course of, or jump-diffusion course of, and to resolve if the variations defined are enough to justify the usage of the stochastic course of forecast.

Autocorrelation exams to see if the historical past of the time-series knowledge can be utilized to foretell the long run.

Trend evaluation to check if the info set follows a linear time-trend and what the extent of predictability is.

Time-series forecasting, to check for the baseline shifts, developments, and seasonality results of the time-series knowledge.

• Advanced Data Diagnostic Tool: Select the info you want to analyze, together with the headers, and begin this device (situated at Risk Simulator | Tools | Diagnostic Tool), and the next: analyses can be found:

 

Heteroskedasticity.

Multicollinearity.

Micronumerosity.

Nonlinearity.

Outliers.

Autocorrelation.

Partial Autocorrelation.

Distributive Lag.

Normality and Sphericity.

Nonstationarity.

Stochastic Characteristics.

Linear and Nonlinear Correlations.

Variance Inflation Factors.

Visual Charts.

These exams are important earlier than beginning any varieties of forecasting or knowledge evaluation procedures. Each check comes full with an easy-to-understand detailed report in order that it doesn’t take a skilled econometrician or statistician to know and interpret the outcomes.

 

• Maximum Likelihood: This is on the market at (Risk Simulator | Forecasting | Maximum Likelihood) whereby most probability iterative and inside optimization procedures are used to mannequin binary response variables (the dependent variable is binary, taking up the values of Zero or 1). This is a key discriminant evaluation with a number of makes use of (e.g., figuring out if sufferers will develop most cancers given some traits similar to age, cigarettes smoked, blood strain; or to find out if a credit score line or particular person will default on a mortgage given the corporate’s belongings, asset volatility, or the particular person’s age, schooling stage, years at a job, and so forth).

 

• Multi-Language Support: We have a number of language assist, with English (USA), Chinese (Simplified), Spanish, and Japanese, with forthcoming editions with extra languages. Users can change between languages halfway whereas engaged on their fashions by merely clicking on the Risk Simulator and Languages menu, and restarting Excel.
• Microsoft .NET Framework 2.0/3.0: We have utterly upgraded our supply code to work seamlessly with Microsoft .NET Framework 2.0/3.0. This interprets to increased velocity and compatibility with newer computer systems.

 

Other Minor Updates:

 

1. Dynamic Sensitivity Charts at the moment are able to taking each cell names and cell addresses.
2. Dynamic and Stochastic Optimization routines now assist:

Conditional Means and Semi-Standard Deviations for CVar computations c. Updated examples to showcase the usage of Efficient Frontier evaluation and a number of fashions econometrics

1. Updated Japanese consumer guide e. Updated language edits and corrections in Spanish stories and Spanish consumer interface
2. Online sources menu inside Risk Simulator for fast and easy accessibility at your fingertips

 

 

RISK SIMULATOR DETAILS

 

WHAT IS RISK ANALYSIS?

How do you make important enterprise selections? Do you take into account the dangers of your initiatives and selections, or are you extra targeted on returns? Do you’ve a tough time making an attempt to know what threat is, not to mention quantifying threat? Well, our Risk Simulator software program will assist you to establish, quantify, and worth threat in your initiatives and selections.

 

RISK SIMULATOR is a robust Excel add-in software program used for making use of simulation, forecasting, statistical evaluation, and optimization in your current Excel spreadsheet fashions. The software program was developed particularly to be extraordinarily straightforward to make use of. For occasion, working a threat simulation is so simple as 1-2-3, set an enter, set an output, and run. Performing forecasting could be so simple as two or three mouse clicks away and the software program does all the pieces for you mechanically, full with detailed stories, highly effective charts and numerical outcomes. It even is available in English, Spanish, Chinese and Japanese, with extra languages on their manner.

 

If we’ve the know-how to ship spacecrafts half manner throughout the photo voltaic system, why can’t we spend a bit extra time quantifying threat? Such know-how already exists and Risk Simulator encapsulates these superior methodologies right into a easy and user-friendly device. We have books, dwell coaching (Certification in Risk Management) seminars, coaching DVDs, consultants and free pattern getting began movies in threat evaluation and modeling accessible on our web site.

 

Risk Simulator can also be built-in with our different software program together with the Real Options Super Lattice Solver, Employee Stock Options Valuation Toolkit, Modeling Toolkit (over 800 Functions and 300 Models), ROV Modeler, ROV Optimizer, ROV Valuator, ROV Basel II Modeler, ROV Compiler, ROV Extractor and Evaluator, and ROV Dashboard. Please go to our web site for extra particulars.

 

SUPPORT MATERIALS

• 10 books on threat evaluation, simulation, forecasting, optimization, actual choices, and choices valuation written by the software program’s creator
• Training DVDs on threat evaluation (simulation, forecasting, optimization, actual choices, and utilized enterprise statistics)
• Live coaching and certification programs on basic threat administration, threat simulation, forecasting, optimization, and strategic actual choices evaluation
• Detailed consumer guide, assist file, and an in depth library of instance information
• Live venture consultants with superior levels and years of consulting and business expertise

 

TRIAL AND ACADEMIC VERSIONS

Risk Simulator could be downloaded instantly from our web site with a default 10 day trial license. Our philosophy is you get to strive before you purchase. Once you employ it, we’re satisfied you’ll fall in love with the simplicity and the facility of the device, and it’ll change into an indispensible a part of your modeling toolbox. We even have tutorial licenses for full time professors instructing threat evaluation (and their college students) or different related programs utilizing Risk Simulator or our different software program merchandise. Contact [email protected] for particulars.

 

TRAINING AND CONSULTING

Advanced analytical instruments such because the Risk Simulator software program are constructed to be straightforward to make use of however could get the analyst in hassle if used inappropriately. Sufficient theoretical understanding coupled with pragmatic software expertise is important; due to this fact, coaching is important.

 

Our Risk Analysis course is a two-day seminar targeted on hands-on computer-based software program coaching, with matters protecting the fundamentals of threat and uncertainty, utilizing Monte Carlo simulation (pitfalls and due diligence), and all the detailed strategies in forecasting and optimization.

 

We even have a Real Options for Analysts course for the analysts who wish to instantly start making use of strategic actual choices of their work, however lack the hands-on expertise with actual choices analytics and modeling. This two-day course covers learn how to arrange actual choices fashions, apply actual choices, and remedy actual choices issues utilizing simulation, closed-form arithmetic, and binomial and multinomial lattices utilizing the Real Options SLS software program.

 

The Certified in Risk Management (CRM) seminar is a four-day hands-on class that covers the supplies on our Risk Analysis and Real Options for Analysts programs and geared in direction of the CRM certification offered by the International Institute of Professional Education and Research (AACSB member and eligible for 30 PDU credit with the PMI).

 

Our Risk Analysis for Senior Managers is a sooner or later course specifically designed for senior executives, the place we are going to overview case research in threat administration from 3M, Airbus, Boeing, GE, and lots of others. It supplies an government overview of threat evaluation, strategic actual choices, portfolio optimization, forecasting and threat ideas with out the technical particulars.

 

Also accessible are different custom-made determination, valuation and threat evaluation programs with an emphasis on on-site trainings custom-made to your agency’s actual wants primarily based on your small business instances and fashions). Consulting providers can be found, together with the framing of threat evaluation issues, simulation, forecasting, actual choices, threat analytics, mannequin constructing, determination evaluation, built-in OEM and software program customization.

 

EXPERTISE

Dr. Johnathan Mun is the software program’s creator and teaches the Risk Analysis, Real Options for Analysts, Risk Analysis for Managers, CRM, and different programs. He has consulted for a lot of Fortune 500 companies (from 3M, Airbus, and Boeing to GE and Motorola) and the federal government (Department of Defense, State and Federal Agencies) on threat evaluation, valuation, and actual choices, and has written plenty of books on the subject, together with Real Options Analysis: Tools and Techniques, 1st and 2nd Edition (Wiley Finance, 2002, 2005); Real Options Analysis Course: Business Cases (Wiley Finance, 2003); Applied Risk Analysis: Moving Beyond Uncertainty in Business (Wiley, 2003); Valuing Employee Stock Options Under 2004 FAS 123 (Wiley Finance, 2004); Modeling Risk: Applying Monte Carlo Simulation, Real Options Analysis, Forecasting and Optimization (Wiley, 2006); Advanced Analytical Models: 800 Functions and 300 Models from Basel II to Wall Street and Beyond (Wiley 2008); The Banker’s Handbook on Credit Risk: Implementing Basel II (Elsevier Academic Press 2008); and others. He is the founder and CEO of Real Options Valuation, Inc., and is liable for the event of analytical software program merchandise, consulting, and coaching providers. He was previously Vice President of Analytics at Decisioneering, Inc. (Oracle), and was a Consulting Manager in KPMG’s Global Financial Strategies observe. Before KPMG, he was head of monetary forecasting for Viking, Inc. (an FDX/FedEx Company). Dr. Mun can also be a full professor on the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, a professor on the University of Applied Sciences and Swiss School of Management (Zurich and Frankfurt), and has held different adjunct professorships at numerous universities. He has a Ph.D. in finance and economics, an MBA in enterprise administration, an M.S. within the space of administration science, and a BS in utilized sciences. He is licensed in Financial Risk Management (FRM), Certified in Financial Consulting (CFC), and Certified in Risk Management (CRM).