Master Class with Gerald Appel 

at the January 2003 Caribbean Traders’ Camp

 

Session 1

Market Indices and Chart Formations

1.  NASDAQ Composite and Current Volatility

2.  The Long Term Moving Average Channel of NASDAQ

3.  MACD Patterns of the S & P 500 Threatening to Break Long Term Downtrend

4.  NASDAQ /NYSE Index Relative Strength Favors Nasdaq – Bullish

5.  Bullish and Bearish Chart Patterns 1

6.  Bullish and Bearish Chart Patterns 2

7.  Angle Changes

8.  T-formations

9.  NASDAQ Composite T-Formations

10. Andrew’s Pitchfork

 

Session 2

Moving Average Convergence-Divergence

 

1.   Illustration of MACD Concept

2.   Introducing the Signal Line

3.   The Basic Buy and Sell Signal

4.   Using Divergences to Recognize the Reliable Signals

5.   Further Examples of Divergences

6.   Comparing MACD to a Price Momentum Oscillator

7.   Comparison of MACD and RSI

8.   Different MACD’s for Buy and Sell Signals

9.   MACD during a Strong Market Uptrend

10. MACD during a Strong Downtrend

11. Treasury Bonds, MACD, and a Strong Uptrend

12. The Stop-loss Signal for an Unsuccessful Trade

13. Using Trendlines to Confirm Buy and Sell Signals

14. Long-Term MACD Signals – The Start of a Bull Market

15.  A Long Bull Market – Then the Crash

16. Using Monthly MACD to Define Very Major Trends

17. Using Time Cycles to Confirm MACD Signals

18. Using Time Cycles – 2^nd Example

19. When MACD Does Not Provide Timely Signals

20. Four Stages of MACD and the Market Cycle

21. The 1998 Bottom

22. A Bull and then a Bear Market

23. Catching the Lows – the 1984 bottom

24. A Second Example of Bottom Finding

25. A Final Example of  Bottom Finding

26. Bear Market Rally, 2001 – 2002

 

Session 3

Riding the Market:  Strategies to Stay on the Right Side of Market Trends

1.   Summary

2.   Drawdown Illustrated

3.   Some Risk-Adjusted Performance Measures (Higher = Better)

4.   “Normal” Risks for Various Investments (not worst cases)

5.   Basic Risk Control Strategies

6.   Core Portfolio – Designed to Minimize 1–year Losses

7.   Four Parts of the Portfolio

8.   Core Portfolio Performance History

9.   Minimum Risk Portfolio

10. Core Portfolio at Vanguard

11. Core Portfolio with ETF’s

12. Concept of Relative Strength

13. Example of Relative Strength Analysis: NYSE Composite Rises Faster when NASDAQ is Strong

14. Large Cap Value/Growth Model

15. SVX Divided by SGX (monthly)

16. Performance of SVX/SGX Model since 1994

17. Average Performance of Large Cap Value Mutual Funds vs. Large Cap Growth Mutual Funds since 1962

18. Large Cap Value Divided by Large Cap Growth

19. Large Cap versus Small Cap Model

20. S & P 500 Divided by S & P 600 (monthly)

21. Performance of S & P 500/SML Model since 1995

22. S & P 500 Index vs. Average Small Cap Mutual Funds since 1979

23. S & P 600/Cash Timing Model Rules

24. S & P Small Cap/Cash Timing Model

25. S & P 600/Cash Model Results

26. Interest Rates and Stocks

27. Stocks and Interest Rates

28. Results: Rates and Stocks, 1962 – 2002

29. Avoid Sales Loads

30. How is Your Fund Doing?

31. Mutual Funds vs S & P 500

 

Session 4

Four Presentations

A – Analyzing the Stock Market with Moving Average Trading Bands

1.   Basic Concept of Moving Average Trading Channel

3.   Different Phases within the Moving Average Trading Channel (NASDAQ Composite, Daily)

3.   Different Phases within the Moving Average Trading Channel (NYSE Composite, monthly)

4.   Long-Term Weekly Chart –NYSE Index 21-Week Average, 6% bands

5.   Moving Average Channels in a Flat Market Period – 1991-1992

 

B – Volatility Peaks and Major Market Bottoms

6.   The NASDAQ Composite and Historical Volatility, 1970 – 1979

7.   The NASDAQ Composite and Historical Volatility, 1980-`1989

8.   The NASDAQ Composite and Historical Volatility, 1990-1999

9.   The NASDAQ Composite and Historical Volatility,2000-2002

10. Peak Volatility, Subsequent Market Movement

 

C – The 4 Pillars of Investment Success – Long-Term Growth with Greater Safety

11. Investment Strategies for Uncertain Times

12. Why Safer Stock Funds Work Better

13. Avg % Gain in Winning Months – Avg % Loss in Losing Months Based on Volatility Groups

14. Gain Per Year, Based on Volatility Groups – 20 Years

15. Closed Drawdowns Based on Volatility Groups

16. Fund Rotation Strategy – Performance by Performance Rank

D – The Power of NASDAQ

17. NASDAQ Composite – NASDAQ/NYSE Minus 10 Week Moving Average, 1970-1973

18. NASDAQ Composite – NASDAQ/NYSE Minus 10 Week Moving Average, 1980-1984

19. NASDAQ Composite – NASDAQ/NYSE Minus 10 Week Moving Average, 1997-2002

20. NASDAQ Composite When NASDAQ is Dominant vs. NASDAQ buy and Hold – NYSE Composite When NASDAQ is Dominant vs. NASDAQ buy and Hold

21. NASDAQ Relative Strength Summary

22. Relative Strength with Intermediate Monetary Filter

Forex Trading – Foreign Exchange Course

You want to learn about Forex?

Foreign exchange, or forex, is the conversion of one country’s currency into another.
In a free economy, a country’s currency is valued according to the laws of supply and demand.
In other words, a currency’s value can be pegged to another country’s currency, such as the U.S. dollar, or even to a basket of currencies.
A country’s currency value may also be set by the country’s government.
However, most countries float their currencies freely against those of other countries, which keeps them in constant fluctuation.